November 26, 2024 – In the US, sweet baked goods are preferred for their indulgence, and it provides a sense of everyday enjoyment. Innova’s 360 research into sweet baked goods trends highlights market insights, top brands, product launches, and the latest consumer preferences within the sweet baked goods industry.
Sweet Baked Goods Market Trends
The US leads the global market in cookie value and holds the second-largest position in the global market for cakes. Over the next five years, the market value of cakes is projected to grow at a faster CAGR of 2% than cookies. In addition, the U.S. ranks third in the world in per capita consumption of cakes, pastries and confectionery, reflecting strong consumer demand for indulgent treats.
Consumer Preferences
In the U.S., 54% of consumers purchase cakes, pastries and confectionery, in line with the global average. Less than half purchase cookies, which is lower than the global average. About 4 in 10 consumers eat cookies and cakes more than once a week, with most maintaining consistent consumption over the past year.
Taste drives the preference for sweet baked goods industry, followed by indulgence/treat and to make oneself happy. Convenience is another common reason for both cookie and cake consumption. Claims such as made with real ingredients influence purchasing decisions, while indulgence ranks among the top factors for both subcategories. U.S. consumers also want both cakes and cookies to be traditionally made or crafted.
Chocolate chip leads in cookie flavors, favored by nearly half of consumers, while milk chocolate is the top choice for cakes. In addition, 16% of cookie consumers and 13% of cake consumers say they prioritize low or reduced sugar options, reflecting a growing demand for balanced indulgence.
Top Brands and Companies
Target, a private label in the US, leads in launches of biscuits/cookies and cakes, pastries and sweet goods. Launches by UHC are fragmented, with five private label brands ranking in the top 10. Among branded players, Mondelēz is leading in sweet biscuit and cookie launches, while Kellanova drives innovation in cakes.
Mondelēz aims to be the global leader in snacking. Some of their top brands are Barni, LU, Chips Ahoy, Enjoy Life, and Oreo. It continues its aim through its Snacking Made Right effort, focusing on sustainable ingredients, renewable resources, mindful snacking, and human rights. Its recent product development includes new flavors, seasonal offerings, and limited-edition releases. In 2024, Oreo expanded its gluten-free range with golden sandwich cookies, and Chips Ahoy introduced gluten-free options.
Kellanova, following its spin-off from Kellogg Company, emphasizes brand building and innovation for Eggo and Pop-Tarts. Recent launches include Eggo Fully Loaded, featuring 10g of protein per serving, alongside new flavors, textures, and shapes within its existing portfolio, highlighting continued growth and consumer engagement in the branded cake subcategory.
Sweet Baked Goods Launch Trends
The launch activity for sweet baked goods remains strong and following the same trend as total food and beverage launches. After 2021, launches of sweet baked goods remained flat. Cakes and cookies have similar launch trends in the US over the past five years. Cookies contributed 59% of sweet baked goods launches, and cakes made up 41% over the past year.
Seasonal—other claims show a notable 5% rise in launches, reflecting consumer interest in timely and occasion-based offerings. Other claims, including no additives or preservatives, high protein, ethical environment, plant-based, and limited edition, have experienced 1% growth in launches each. Although small, ethical claims related to the environment are steadily increasing. Plant-based options are gaining attention for their perceived health and environmental benefits.
Sweet Baked Goods Flavors and Ingredients Trends
Taste remains the primary driver for sweet baked goods consumption, making flavor variety significant for attracting consumers. Fruit flavors like strawberry and blueberry show small growth in launches. Many unique seasonal and limited edition flavors have been introduced over the past five years.
In terms of ingredients, dairy ingredients have experienced a growth in launches over the past year. Butter, skim milk powder and whey powder have seen the greatest increase in launches. Wheat is the primary flour used in sweet baked goods industry, but some less commonly used flours increased in launches such as rice, almonds, and corn.
What’s Next in the US Sweet Baked Goods Industry?
Flavor is the most important reason for consumers to consume sweet baked goods market globally, driven by the expectation of indulgence and happiness. Consumers are looking for products that not only taste good, but also make them feel rewarded and uplifted. Brands can focus on launches that convey a sense of being traditionally made or crafted, which can strongly appeal to these preferences.
The use of real ingredients is equally important, especially in indulgent categories, as it often translates into a perception of healthier, more authentic products. Consumers are also increasingly mindful of planetary and human concerns, creating demand products made with sustainably farmed cocoa and grains. Transparent storytelling about ingredient origins and production methods can help brands connect with ethically conscious consumers.
Emerging trends like upcycling ingredients, though limited in sweet baked goods industry, hold potential for future growth, offering brands an opportunity to align with sustainability and innovation. As consumer values evolve, integrating indulgence with environmental and ethical responsibility is likely to lead brands in the sweet baked goods industry.
This article is based on Innova’s Now & Next in Sweet Baked Goods in the US report. This report is available to purchase or with an Innova Reports subscription. Reach out to find out more
